D.C. area forecast: Sticky today with storm chances; downright steamy Monday

2-hour radar loop. Refresh page to update.

6:27 p.m. update: All severe thunderstorm warnings were allowed to expire, and the storms are all but over in the Beltway. Heavy rain and lightning will continue to push southeast through Prince George’s and Anne Arundel counties over the next 30 to 60 minutes, but in general these storms have weakened as they’ve tracked across the D.C. area.

Scattered showers continue behind the main line of storms in Maryland and northern Virginia, so rain chances aren’t totally down to zero this evening. That should be about it for our area through the overnight hours in terms of strong thunderstorms, though high resolution models suggest we have the chance for another round of heavy rain just before sunrise.

5:40 p.m. update: A severe thunderstorm warning is in effect through 6 p.m. for the District and close-in areas. A storm with gusty winds and small hail is tracking southeast through the area. Head indoors – as this storm will take through about 6:15 p .m. to pass.

A second severe thunderstorm warning is in effect for northeast Prince George’s County through west central Anne Arundel County through 6:15 p.m. This storm, near Bowie, is headed towards Annapolis over the next 30 minutes.

4:15 p.m. update: Scattered storms have developed late this afternoon, with the greatest concentration north and west of the District. Storm activity should shift east over the next several hours. Generally the greatest concentration of storms should be north of the District (60-70 percent of storms), but areas inside the Beltway and to the south still have a reasonably good (around 50-50) chance to be affected. The most likely timing window for storms in close-in D.C. is between about 5:00 and 7:30 p.m.

Thus far, storms have not reached severe limits, but downpours, lightning and gusty winds are all possible in any storms that develop.

(For storm specific updates, follow our Twitter feed).

9:15 a.m. update: Based on the latest information, we think the best chance of storms today will be in our northern suburbs, with more widely scattered (hit-or-miss) activity to the south. Determining the exact timing of storms remains tricky, but chances start at about 15-25 percent by mid-afternoon and increase to about 50-60 percent this evening between 6-10 p.m. (the highest percentages are north of the District).

Our northern and northwestern areas have a slight risk of severe storms with the possibility of damaging winds and hail.

Original post from 6 a.m.

TODAY’S DAILY DIGIT
A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

5/10: Still warm and humid with scattered showers/storms, but it’s also the weekend. Make the most of it.

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Warm and humid, afternoon/evening storms possible. Highs: 87-91
Tonight: Mostly cloudy, showers possible. Lows: 71-76
Tomorrow: Partly sunny, hot and humid; chance of a PM shower/storm. Highs: 89-93

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Today is another muggy affair with the risk of scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms. Not everyone sees rain, but in the areas where a storm passes through, heavy downpours, frequent lightning and gusty winds could occur.

More of the sun shows itself tomorrow with a lower risk of showers/storms. Temperatures rise a notch into the low 90s for most and humidity stays high. It’s much the same story for Tuesday before a weak cool front passage may offer modest relief for Wednesday.

Today (Sunday): It’s still warm and humid, with more clouds than sun. The mostly cloudy sky should keep highs below 90 across most of the area, with the warmest spots peaking around 90. Showers and storms riding the ridge of high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic should be scattered in coverage, with most storms likely pulsing up in the afternoon and early evening. A few storms could be severe, capable of producing damaging winds.

Some parts of the region may stay dry throughout the day, but everyone should keep a watchful eye on the radar for shower/storm development that could hamper outdoor plans. Winds will be light and out of the south. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Any surviving shower/storm activity this evening should pulse down toward sunset, though intermittent showers are possible anywhere across the area throughout the overnight hours. It will be mostly cloudy otherwise, with a continued light wind from the south, averaging around 5 mph.  Confidence: Medium-High

For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend…

Tomorrow (Monday): A sunnier sky should emerge, which also means hotter temperatures. Most areas rise into the low 90s, with an outside chance that the Beltway and southern suburbs touch 94. Humidity levels remain very uncomfortable with dew points remaining in the 70-73 range, making it feel like the upper 90s (heat index) in the mid-late afternoon. Shower and storm chances decrease to 40% or lower. A slight (hot) breeze will kick up from the southwest at around 10 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: It will be partly to mostly cloudy and very mild, with readings only dropping off into the low 70s across the outlying suburbs and the mid-70s downtown. While low overall, the chance for showers is highest in the hours before midnight. Winds remain out of the southwest at 5-10 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

Dulles, Va. on June 13, 2015 (Kit Case via Flickr)

A LOOK AHEAD

Tuesday should be as hot and humid as the day before under a mostly sunny sky. Highs aim for the low 90s again with some parts of the region possibly topping out in the mid-90s. We retain a low risk of showers/storms for the afternoon and evening. Confidence: Medium

It looks like a cool front will pass through the area in time for Wednesday, but this front will be weak and bring modest relief to the heat and humidity. Highs probably shoot for the mid- to upper 80s with dew points dropping into the mid- to upper 60s. The shower/storm risk remains low. Confidence: Medium