The
U.S. missile strike that killed al-Qaeda's No. 2 leader is another in a
recent string of devastating blows to the terrorist group's old-guard
leadership that might inadvertently help a more brutal terror group: the
Islamic State, analysts said.
Al-Qaeda announced Tuesday that
Nasir al-Wahishi, who led the group's active affiliate in Yemen and had
been close to founder Osama bin Laden, had been killed. The U.S.
government later confirmed al-Wahishi's death.
The
death comes as al-Qaeda is vying with the Islamic State for supremacy
in the region and could give a boost to the al-Qaeda offshoot that has
captured large parts of Syria and Iraq.
"What we are starting to
see now with that generation going is that people who favor the Islamic
State method of doing things are gaining the ascendancy," said Matthew
Henman, head of IHS Jane's Terrorism and Insurgency Centre.
The
Islamic State is even more ruthless than al-Qaeda and has no qualms
about killing civilians or attacking mosques and posting videos of its
ruthlessness. The group's success in Syria and Iraq have attracted
legions of young recruits.
Al-Wahishi's generation of leaders were
able to rally the organization's followers around its brand of terror
that largely hit Western targets.
Al-Qaeda's Yemen affiliate has
plotted a number of those attacks. It claimed responsibility for
January's massacre of staffers at the satirical weekly Charlie Hebdo in Paris after the magazine poked fun at the prophet Mohammed.
Yet
the next generation of leaders may be lured by the Islamic State's mass
brutality against enemies, which include fellow Muslims, or risk losing
followers to the militants, Henman said.
Al-Qaeda announced that
al-Wahishi's deputy, Qassim al-Raimi, would replace the man who had
built the organization in Yemen into al-Qaeda's most dangerous
affiliate.
Ned Price, a spokesman for the President Obama's
National Security Council, called al-Wahishi's death "a major blow" to
al-Qaeda. "The president has been clear that terrorists who threaten the
United States will not find safe haven in any corner of the globe," he
said.
While al-Qaeda and its affiliates "will remain persistent in
their efforts to threaten the United States, our partners, and our
interests, Wahishi's death removes from the battlefield an experienced
terrorist leader and brings us closer to degrading and ultimately
defeating these groups," Price said in a statement.
Al-Raimi's
quick succession, however, questions the effectiveness of the
administration's tactic of using drone strikes to target al-Qaeda
leaders, given the organization can quickly replace leaders with little
disruption to its operations, some analysts said.
"If you are
decapitating right and left and the threat is still growing, then the
strategy is not working," said James Carafano, an analyst at the
Heritage Foundation.
The Obama administration has stepped up
targeted drone strikes, particularly in Yemen in recent months. A raging
civil war there between a Saudi-backed government and Iran-backed
rebels has allowed both al-Qaeda and the Islamic State to capitalize on
the chaos to grow in influence and power. Both groups also are
benefiting from civil wars in Syria and Libya.
"Al-Qaeda was
presented with an opportunity in these countries and it is working to
exploit it," said Katherine Zimmerman, an analyst at the American
Enterprise Institute. Recent killings of al-Qaeda leaders represent only
"short-term tactical gains" for the United States, she said.
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